Newspaper Industry - Scenario Planning

            This document will discuss how scenario planning impacted the newspaper industry and some of the driving forces that caused many newspaper companies filed bankruptcy. Some newspaper companies have implemented layoffs and restructuring due to the breakthrough of the Internet that changes the landscape of news and information delivery. Scenario planning instigated from the summit meeting that was organized by World Association of Newspaper and News Publication (WAN-NP) resulted in the identification and prioritization of issues within the industry (Wade, 2014).  The visual diagram of the eight-steps of scenario planning process is presented to serve as an illustration of the methodical process (Ogilvy, 2015, January). The impact of scenario planning of the newspaper industry is the manifestation of its values and necessity for sustainability. The strategy applied in the implementation of scenario planning has reclaimed the global and domestic position of the industry. (Wade, 2014)

            The combination of scenario and traditional business planning has become the necessity of business sustainability today. The different scenarios will highlights more the strengths and weaknesses of the company. Different scenarios will reveal the future conditions from good, bad, and better business predictions. Scenarios without strategy are just like the traditional forecast. In reference to the article of Ogilvy, J. (2015, January) of Forbes publication, scenario planning can provide a different perspective that will shape the future of innovation in the company. (Ogilvy, J. (2015, January)

            A set of scenarios with narratives will impact the future decision-making activities of stakeholders in product or service analysis and other driving forces that will affect profitability and sustainability of the company. The main objective of scenario planning is to discover diversified perspectives that are beyond traditional business forecasting. The primary component of scenario planning is the specific purpose or objective for each scenario within the range of periods and predicted scenario results. (Ogilvy, 2015, January)

            An execution of scenario plans involves 8-steps planning process. These steps are as follows (Figure 1, Ogilvy, 2015, January):

            1. Focal issue

            2. Key Factors

            3. External forces

            4. Critical uncertainties

            5. Scenario logics

            6. Scenarios

            7. Implications and options

            8. Early indicators

            The first step is the identification of the issue that the organization needs to focus on for scenario planning. The issue could be a question of merging or buying other companies, new location, new product, incremental or breakthrough innovations, and other open-ended issues. In the second step of the scenario, the process is listing all the key factors that may disrupt the flow of business profitability. Key factors include market or customers demand, suppliers, competitors, production, technology, workforce, etc. These factors will impact a set of scenarios planned and selected. In addition to these key factors, external forces like economics, cultural differences, migration, technological trends, political and environmental issues, inflation, and other unpredictable forces that may arise and affect the industry. (Ogilvy, 2015, January)

            The third step is the identification of the external forces coming from socio-economic technological forces, innovations that will disrupt the market, and breakthrough innovations. As the process continues, the last five steps of scenario planning process are intended to execute methodically to achieve a balance between brainstorming, creative imagination, and sound judgment. (Ogilvy, 2015, January)

            In early 1990, newspaper industry encountered by many changes in the transmission of information and news from various forces such a 24-hour cable TV channels, the breakthrough of Worldwide web – Internet, and readers transitioning to free news instead of paid subscription. To offset these driving forces that resulted in layoffs, salary reductions, reduced frequency of publication, restructuring, and business closures by 2007. The industry failed to sustain profitability and realized that a change in business model is critical. (Wade, 2014)

            In 2007, the World Association of Newspaper and News Publication decided to develop a business model that will be sustainable until 2020. The transformation of the newspaper industry into scenario planning approach that will change the landscape of the industry included a two-day workshop in January 2008 and 19 newspaper executives from various countries. One of the specific questions for the committee is, “What kind of content will newspapers contain in 2020, and how will this differ from content in 2007” (Wade, 2014)? As a result of the scenario planning activities, 66 trends were selected and prioritized by importance to address the future sustainability of the industry.  According to Wade (2014), some of these trends are: new revenue models, multichannel strategies, user-generated content, shifting importance from channel to content, target market segmentation, etc.

            The final decision of the team, a recommendation was made to work on two particular issues that could be the driving forces in the newspaper industry. The team also developed several scenarios to address several issues and align industry with the new socio-economic and technological landscape from cable TV channels to handheld devices. The four scenarios that the team decided are displayed in Figure 2 below. (Wade, 2014, p. 73)

Figure 2

            Scenario planning has an impact in many industries. As for example is the newspaper industry, scenario planning has placed the industry in competitive advantage than a fading industry. The digitation of news has promoted an energy-saving initiative that adheres to environmental state and federal regulations. The execution and implementation of scenario planning have changed the landscape of newspaper industry into a paradigm of mobile devices and other trends in technology and address multi-generational readers. (Wade, 2014)

Conclusion

            Scenario planning can be very useful for personal achievement. As for me, five years before a planned retirement, I have developed a set of personal scenario that will affect my future after working full time for almost 40 years. One scenario is to retire without a master degree, then I probably end up doing nothing or become a greeter at  Wal-Mart just like some of my friends are doing. The second scenario is to complete the education that I have started and acquired a master and doctoral degree. The accomplishment of the second scenario has provided me with more satisfaction in retirement living. Since my passion is teaching, I was able to teach part-time and still continue the doctoral program. Today, I am on the last event of the set of scenario I have selected – complete the doctoral program. Scenario planning is not only for business but also in a real-life scenario.

            Scenario planning is an approach that can shape the future of global and domestic industries. Scenarios will impact the GDP growth, trade exchange, tourism industry, structures, environmental issues and regulations, food supply, supply chain management, and people’s quality of life 20 years from today. ((Wade, 2014, pp. 73-86)

References

Wade, W. (2014). Scenario Planning: A field guide to the future. Retrieved from

            https://bookshelf.vitalsource.com/books/9781118226926

Ogilvy, J. (2015, January). Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting. Forbes.

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-

            forecasting/#5200356411a3. p. 1-7